Thailand is in one of those “hold-your-breath” moments. Rumors are swirling that the government might dissolve the House of Representatives—thanks to a leaked phone call involving Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. But EconThai, Thailand’s top voice for employers and trade, is waving a big red flag and saying, “Wait! That could wreck the economy.” Let’s dig into why.
What’s the Big Deal with Dissolving Parliament?
Dissolving the House means scrapping the current legislative body and calling fresh elections. Sounds democratic? Sure. But here’s the thing—it takes time. Like, five to six months, according to EconThai vice-chair Tanit Sorat. That’s months of limbo when no new policies can be passed, budgets can’t be approved, and investors will sit tight, waiting for clarity.
EconThai’s Wake-Up Call
The Risk of a Political Void
Tanit Sorat isn’t talking politics—he’s sounding the alarm on the economy. Without Parliament, Thailand faces a policy blackout. Imagine planning a trip in the dark while your GPS is off. That’s what businesses feel like without clear government direction.
Budget Bottlenecks
Thailand’s government is ironing out a 3.78‑trillion‑baht budget for fiscal 2026. Dissolve now, and that whole budget process screeches to a halt. No spending plans, no investments, no safety nets. That’s not hypothetical—it’s tangible fear.
What’s Fueling the Political Shake-up?
A few things are rocking the boat:
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Leaked Phone Call: A private call between PM Paetongtarn and Cambodia’s ex‑PM Hun Sen splashed into public view. That drama’s triggered flares of outrage and finger-pointing .
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Fragile Coalition: The Bhumjaithai Party has pulled support, and trust is frayed. That’s turned the government’s structure into Jenga—super unstable.
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Economic Headwinds: Domestic growth is sluggish, Cambodia disputes are still simmering, and Thai trade negotiators are working to ease U.S. tariffs—all while the political storm brews.
A Snapshot Table—What’s at Stake
| Economic Area | Before House Dissolution | After (If Packed) |
|---|---|---|
| Budget & Fiscal Policy | 3.78 T baht on track, stimulus & services live | Frozen budget, policy deadlock, slower public programs |
| Business & Investor Confidence | Cautious but active investment | Waiting game—new deals motor stalled, stock & asset jitters grow |
| Trade Negotiations (esp. US) | Tariff relief talks ongoing | Delay could inflate export costs amid 36% US tariff threat |
| Tourism & Domestic Demand | Gradual rebound post-pandemic | Political drama could scare off visitors & dampen consumer spending |
How Could It Play Out?
Immediate Jitters in Markets
Markets hate uncertainty—period. Right now, Thai investor sentiment is shaky. We’re flirting with being technically in recession. Investors are saying, “We’ll wait and see” on fresh investments, projects, or even expansions.
Trade Talks Take a Breather
Thailand’s negotiating for lower U.S. tariffs—right when uncertainty spikes. If domestic politics distract policymakers, the whole negotiation timeline slows. That could cost Thai exporters a bundle.
Voices from the Ground
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SCB’s Poonyawat Sreesing says the economy is already fragile; any major shake-up like dissolving Parliament could bust what little momentum exists.
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FTI (Federation of Thai Industries) says cabinet unity matters more than a quick election. They want skilled ministers tackling economic woes, not drama players.
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Companies like Kijcharoen Engineering warn that investor freeze-out is already happening, but they still hope green shifts like renewables will cushion the blow.
A Possible Way Out
Fix the Coalition, Don’t Blitz the House
What if the PM reworks her cabinet, patches things up with Bhumjaithai, and keeps Parliament running? That could stabilize policy direction, keep the budget flowing, and preserve investor confidence.
PM’s Accountability Options
Tanit Sorat suggests one bold move: the PM resigns. Why? It fire-drills the crisis, lets a fresh face steer, and sidelines the uproar—without scrapping the House. That’s more surgical than doing an election open-heart surgery.
Broader Takeaway—Why It Matters for You
Thailand isn’t just a few provinces—it’s an economy tied into global supply chains, tourism circuits, and neighboring geopolitics. When the House freezes, these wheels stop spinning too. And that ripple eventually hits us all—price tags creep up, job talks slow, and confidence dims.
Conclusion
Dissolving Parliament might feel like hitting “reset”, but EconThai is saying “hold up”—because the tab on disruption is just too high. With a shaky economy, pending trade talks, and simmering territorial disputes, this isn’t the time to pause governance. Instead, a smart reshuffle or PM change could calm the waters without sinking the ship. Keep Parliament running, get things stabilized, and let Thailand catch its breath.